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How Not to Be Wrong

by Jordan Ellenberg

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Indexed Notes by Topic

Florence Nightingale

Insights:

  1. Coxcomb graph - developed by Florence Nightingale - showed in very visual terms that most of the British soldiers that died in the Crimean War had been killed by infection, not enemy soldiers.

Survivorship Bias

Insights:

  1. Survivorship bias plays a big role in investment funds. The ones that die don't show up in the numbers over time, inflating the average returns.

References:

  1. Abraham Wald: "Bullet hole problem" during WWII.