Think Like a Rocket Scientist

"You’re not entitled to take a view, unless and until you can argue better against that view than the smartest guy who holds that opposite view."

- Charlie Munger

Insight: Charlie Munger is a proponent of the steel man rather than straw man tactic - finding and articulating the strongest, not weakest, form of the opponent's argument.

• Example: Adding additional redundancies to an engineering project eventually makes them a burden rather than a benefit - they add additional complexity, weight, and cost.

• Definition: Einstellung is a German term for "set". The Einstellung Effect refers to a fixed mental set or attitude that stops us seeking alternatives.
• Insight: When we are familiar with a problem and have a response or answer we tend to stop seeing alternative solutions.
• Insight: Our education systems have tended to reward the right answer, rather than finding creative solutions to problems or to reframe questions.
• Insight: Without reframing problems we are stuck with set responses or answers.
• Insight: Rigid education systems can disconnect us from real world problems - in a dynamic environment.
• Principle: Look for ways to reframe or redefine problems or questions.
• Principle: Ask whether you are solving the right problem.

• Reference: Psychologist Karl Duncker - defines functional fixedness as a "mental block against using an object in a new way that is required to solve a problem."
• Example: The Candle Problem, designed by Karl Duncker. Fix a candle to the wall with a box of thunktacks and matches. Most tried to pin the candle to the wall using the thumbtacks, or melt it to the wall with the matches, with neither approach working. They overlooked the solution - to use the box that the thumbtacks was in to stand the candle on by fixing it to the wall with the thumbtacks. Most saw the box for its traditional purpose - to hold the thumbtacks.
• Insight: We fixate on the function for things that we already know.
• Principle: Ask: "If you didn't know what this item is for, what else could you do with it?"

• Insight: A growth mindset enables you to view failure as an opportunity to learn.

Insight: Children are often taught to put things into one of two buckets: good, or bad (right or wrong). This simplification helps us to make sense of the world as children, but we often fail to outgrow this theory as adults. We left thinking that, as Asimov describes, "everything that isn’t perfectly and completely right is totally and equally wrong."

Insight: Asimov observed that the most exciting phrase in science is not "Eureka!", but "That's funny..."

• Example: Assertive stories are used by politicians to gain power.
• Insight: We tend to prefer the neatness and stability of stories, rather than uncertainty.
• Insight: The problem with stories is that misinformation thrives and facts become dispensable.
• Insight: Stories have always prevailed over data.
• Insight: Authorities tend to turn stories into truths, providing a sense of certainty in an uncertain world.
• Example: Assertive stories are used by politicians to gain and hold power.

• Definition: A mental model often stated as a rule "the simplest solution to a problem is the correct one".
• Reference: Named after William of Ockham - 14th century philosopher.
• Reference: Carl Sagan: "When faced with two hypotheses that explain the data equally well, choose the simpler."
• Reference: Einstein: everything should be made "as simple and as few as possible".
• Reference: The popular myth told to illustrate Occam's razor: that NASA spent millions developing a pen that could work in space, the Russians used a pencil.
• Reference: David Murray: In rocket science, the best solutions "use the least number of components to solve the greatest number of problems."
• Reference: Michelangelo: "The sculptor arrives at his end by taking away what is superfluous."
• Insight: Occam's razor should be used as a guiding principle, not a hard and fast rule. The principle is NOT for simplicity at all costs, rather a preference all else being equal.
• Insight: In some cases, the more complex solution will lead to the better result.
• Principle: Even when seeking simplicity, remain open to new facts that may complicate matters.

• Definition: What we have done before shapes what we do next.
• Insight: We gravitate to default options because it is what we are used to.

• Principle: In constructing a model of how an adversary thinks you must be as objective and fair as possible.
• Principle: Avoid creating weaker versions of an opponents position, making them easier to debunk.
• Principle: Use the steel man tactic - find and articulate the strongest form of the opposition's argument.
• Reference: Charlie Munger: "You're not entitled to take a view, unless and until you can argue better against the view that the smartest guy who holds the opposite view."