Confirmation Bias

The tendency to look for information that confirms existing beliefs, and ignore disconfirming evidence.

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Key Insights & Principles

Self-Awareness, Learning, & Decision Making

1. We choose sources to support our ideas.
2. We feel validated by having our beliefs and opinions confirmed.
3. We tend toward sources that confirm beliefs rather than those having a track record of truth.
4. Behaviours that demonstrate confirmation bias: cherry-picking, motivated skepticism, motivated reasoning, stereotyping.
5. Motivations for confirmation bias: Social Dependence - going against commonly held beliefs is difficult in your own community; Intellectual Dependence - people feel smarter when their views are confirmed in echo chambers; Self Esteem - people who are told they are right feel good about themselves.
6. Beliefs can influence our memories.
7. The more varied our sources of information, the less prone we are to confirmation bias.
8. A culture of skepticism is important.
9. People often use research that supports their hypothesis after they have come to a conclusion.
10. Losing, failing, or being proven wrong usually hurts us emotionally.
11. The more power or higher position we hold, the more prone we are to confirmation bias.
12. Confirmation bias can lead us to anchor on previous decisions, make make decisions based on the assumption that those decisions were right.

1. Seek information that contradicts your views.
2. Be open to changing your beliefs based on evidence.
3. Don't spend energy trying to win over rejecters.
4. Cultivate a culture and belief that failure is important.
5. Run small tests, and expect to fail.

Book References