Definition: The feeling that we have a better chance at success in a situation than we objectively do.
Insight: Introducing factors that drive success, such as practice and involvement, into games of chance can create irrational levels of confidence and the illusion of control over predicting what cannot be predicted.
Insight: When people do not have a sense of control they search for patterns even where they do not exist in an attempt to have control.
Example: The belief that selecting lottery numbers will give you a higher chance of success. People prefer to select their own numbers.
Insight: People tend to be confident in uncertain situations when they believe they have control over events they cannot control.
Insight: The illusion of control can breed overconfidence, a disaster for financial investors.
Insight: Most people underestimate the role that chance or events that could not have been predicted plays in the outcome.
Insight: The consequences of the illusion of control can be huge, particularly for financial risks.
Insight: The illusion of control can cause some people to fail to react to external feedback or danger signs.
Insight: It can pay in the long run to have less confidence, heightened anxiety, and respond to these with strategies to mitigate or reduce risk.
Insight: It can feel good to believe we are in control.
Insight: Just because we feel good when we think we are in control, it does not mean that we are actually in control.
Insight: Uncertainty, or the feeling that we are not in control leads to anxiety. Anxiety is something that most people try to avoid.
Insight: The illusion of control can drive us to try things and accomplish that which we might not otherwise.
Insight: The illusion of control can be good in some situations, unless it leads to delusion that harms ourselves or others.
Definition: The tendency to believe that we can have influence over things that we cannot.
Example: Some traffic light pedestrian buttons give people the illusion that they have influence over the lights, when in reality they do nothing.
Example: Elevator "close-door" buttons - many do nothing but give the illusion that the user has control.
Reference: Jenkins and Ward, 1965, experiment with light and switches - subjects believed that they could prevent light flickering by playing with the switches.
Example: People feel they have more chance of winning the lottery when they pick the numbers.
Insight: Our desire for control is strong, and the feeling is so rewarding which causes many people to act as if they can control the uncontrollable.
Insight: There are many studies that suggest that the feeling of being in control - even if this is an illusion - is beneficial to mental health.
Insight: Giving your counterpart in negotiations the illusion of control can make them overconfident. This can be achieved through calibrated questions: questions that the other side can respond to, but have no fixed answers.
Insight: Gaining an upper hand in negotiations offer means giving the other side the illusion of control.
Principle: Identify what people actually need by getting them feeling safe enough to talk and talk about what they want, sustaining the illusion of control.
Principle: Seek "no" in negotiation (giving the opponent the illusion of control), whilst encouraging the opponent to define their position and explain it.
Principle: Ask for advice or help by asking "how" or "what" questions to maintain the illusion of control.
Insight: Anger is the illusion of control - a release of adrenaline increases awareness, energy, and strength, and redirects us away from fear/pain - giving us the feeling of control.
Insight: When we feel powerless, we may become angry to feed the illusion of control, or inflict pain on ourselves.
Insight: We have a need to believe that we are more in control than we are.
Insight: The illusion of control is more persuasive than the reality of uncertainty.
Insight: We tend to focus on the role of skill in explaining the past and predicting the future, and neglect the role of luck - we are therefore prone to the illusion of control.
Insight: Creativity requires faith. This requires that we relinquish control which is scary to most people, and so we resist it.
Insight: On the path to being creative we often put up roadblocks on our own path - in order to maintain the illusion of control.
Insight: The globalised world can feel increasingly beyond our control and we can feel overwhelmed.
Insight: A natural response to overwhelm is to become passive and not try too much in life.
Insight: By limiting our circle of action we can give ourselves the illusion of control - the less we attempt, the less chance of failure.
Example: The "door close" button in many elevators does not work, but is a placebo to give people the illusion of control.
Insight: The illusion of control can make people calm.
Example: Doctors historically have been biased towards action because of the illusion of control (that their actions could make a difference), even if "doing nothing" is the best course of action.
Definition: The proneness to believe that we are more in control of outcomes than we actually are.
Key Insights & Principles
Self-control
We have a tendency to believe we have control over uncertain events.
We tend to overestimate the role of skill or expertise and underestimate luck and random chance.
The illusion of control breeds overconfidence which can have detrimental outcomes when making decisions.
Humans have an emotional desire for control - uncertainty can create anxiety and fear - causing people to act as if they can control what it is not possible to control.
The feeling of control (illusion or not) can be positive - it can drive us to try to achieve things we may not otherwise.
The illusion of control can make people calm.
We have a tendency to restrict our own creativity - and maintain an illusion of control as creativity often requires that we relinquish control.
Anger can provide the illusion of control by releasing adrenaline to increase awareness, energy, strength and redirect attention from fear or pain - the reality is that it can make us more vulnerable.
A response to overwhelm (the feeling of not being in control) is often to be passive and limit our actions to give the illusion of control - the less we attempt, the less chance of failure.
Negotiation
Giving the other side the illusion of control can be advantageous in negotiation - it can make them overconfident or comfortable enough to divulge additional information.
Seek "no" in negotiation and give the opponent the illusion of control.
Ask for advice or help to maintain the illusion of control.
