Optimism Bias

The tendency of people to overestimate the likelihood of experiencing positive events relative to others, and underestimating the likelihood of experiencing negative events.

back to Personal Index

Key Insights & Principles

Decision Making

1. Optimism bias leads to excessive risk taking.
2. Projects are regularly subject to optimism bias.
3. Across all societies and groups people tend to believe that they are a better judge of things than others.

1. Take some (calculated) risks, but never enough to wipe you out.
2. Apply percentage adjustments in cost and time to project plans.

Book References