Definition: Ignorance about what other people think.
Example: Following traditions not because we enjoy them, but because we believe other people do.
Example: Communism in the former Soviet block was thought to persist because of pluralistic ignorance - it toppled once people realised that a large share of the population despised the Soviet regime.
Insight: Many social practices persist because of pluralistic ignorance; small shocks or nudges can dislodge them.
Insight: Large scale social change can often happen when people are allowed or nudged to speak and act according to their actual views and values.
Insight: Nudges that give people permission to voice their actual opinion can create a cascade or bandwagon effect.
Reference: A study from Saudi Arabia, economist Leonardo Bursztyn, on the custom of "guardianship" - when husbands have the final say on whether their wives are allowed to work outside the home - demonstrated that an overwhelming majority of married men when asked in private approved of female labour force participation, but believed, wrongly, that most other men would not want their wives to join the labour force.
Insight: We are often looking for social cues before we act, but we often fail to realise that everyone else is looking for those social cues before they act too. This can lead to a bystander effect, or maintaining the status quo.
Example: Emergencies and the bystander effect. In the case of an emergency it is not always obvious what is happening or what actions to take. In times of uncertainty, we tend to look around for social cues about what is happening. We often fail to realise that others are doing the same thing. Seeing that others are failing to act, we might interpret the situation as a nonemergency.
Insight: If individuals preferences and beliefs are hidden or falsified, change (or rebellions), is difficult to predict.
Insight: In nations or societies where what people say and what people think are misaligned (perhaps because of dictatorship), there is a situation of pluralistic ignorance: individuals have little knowledge about what other citizens believe.
Insight: Change can occur if some individuals publicly express dissatisfaction and the desire for change, and a lot of people are willing to join in that journey.
Example: When no one believes in something, but everyone thinks that everyone else believes, so a status quo is maintained.
Insight: Divergence in what is true and what people believe can occur under dictatorships because we have a tendency to believe what is widely communicated. The consequences of speaking the truth grow with the pressure of going against what you believe your fellow citizens to believe, above the potential punishments from those in power.
Insight: Confusion and fear are contagious, but so are awareness and courage: a few brave people speaking out can be enough to shatter a common delusion.
Key Insights & Principles
Social Change
Many social norms persist because of ignorance about what other people believe.
We are often looking for social cues before we act, but fail to realise that others are doing the same.
Social change can occur when people are allowed or nudged to speak in accordance with their beliefs and values.
A few people voicing their beliefs can create a bandwagon effect that sparks large social change.
Regimes, practices, and untruths can persist because of a misalignment in what people say (or are allowed to say) and what they believe, causing confusion about what people actually believe.
Publicly sharing truth and values is enough to shatter delusion or create social change.
