The tendency to treat recent events or information with more weight when making judgements or decisions whilst undervaluing information or experiences further in the past.
Definition: The tendency to believe that trends, patterns, and information that we have observed in the recent past will continue in the future.
Insight: The very recent past can be a relatively good predictor of the short term future, but is not a good predictor long term in many fields.
Insight: Recent events and trends are often easier to remember, so recency bias is also related to availability bias (how readily events or pieces of information come to mind, influencing our decisions, behaviour, or feelings).
Insight: Recent success is not always a guarantee of future success.
Insight: Romans leaders overcame recency bias whenever they had a military success by having a slave whisper "Memento Mori" (remember that you will die) behind them in the victory parade to limit excessive pride based on recent events.
Example: Someone cutting you off in traffic may affect your mood and how you treat your family immediately when you get home.
Insight: We all have a tendency to be affected and influenced by what happened to us most recently.
Example: Annual performance reviews often have a recency bias - performance in the recent weeks or months can heavily influence the review.
Key Insights & Principles
Decision Making
The recent past is not a good predictor of the long term future.
Recent events and experiences come to mind more readily, so we tend to give them more weight when making decisions.
Recent events and experiences tend to have a greater impact on our emotional state.
Review long term trends and information when making decisions.
Develop mechanisms that enable you to pause and take a step back after recent events, or when information comes to light.
Practice not reacting immediately to recent events.
