Insight: We fool ourselves with stories because we have a strong desire to find distinct patterns, which stories provide.
Insight: We like to summarise and simplify, to reduce complexity - the problem is that we often over-interpret and miss the details that provide truth and reality.
Insight: The narrative fallacy distorts our mental representation of the world - especially with rare events.
Insight: We have a tendency to look at sequences of facts and want to weave an explanation into them or find a "logical" link or relationship.
Insight: Explanations or stories bind facts together - we have a tendency to believe we "understand" when we can find a logical story which makes us feel good.
Insight: We can avoid the narrative fallacy by framing our explanations or stories as conjectures and then running experiments.
Insight: Misunderstandings of rare events can be largely attributed to the narrative fallacy.
Insight: We tend not to be introspective enough to realise that we have less understanding of the world that we think.
Insight: Stories can be effective in conveying the right message or actual truths.
Insight: Narratives tend to work in sound bites, are easier to digest which explains the prevalence of stories to explain events or convey ideas.
Principle: Favour experimentation over stories, experience over history, and clinical knowledge over theories.
Principle: Make predictions of the future, and review over time.
Principle: Be open minded rather than sticking to one narrative.
Definition: Flawed stories of the past shape our views of the world and expectations about the future.
Insight: Narrative fallacies arise from our attempt to make sense of the world.
Insight: Stories provide a simple and coherent account of people's actions and intentions, regardless of truth.
Insight: Stories are simple, concrete rather than abstract.
Insight: Stories often remove the role of luck and randomness and assign a role to talent, stupidity, or intentions.
Insight: Stories focus on what happened or what survived, rather than the many events that didn't happen.
Insight: We constantly fool ourselves by creating history.
Reference: The narrative fallacy was coined by Nassim Taleb, The Black Swan.
Example: Assertive stories are used by politicians to gain power.
Insight: We tend to prefer the neatness and stability of stories, rather than uncertainty.
Insight: The problem with stories is that misinformation thrives and facts become dispensable.
Insight: Stories have always prevailed over data.
Insight: Authorities tend to turn stories into truths, providing a sense of certainty in an uncertain world.
Example: Assertive stories are used by politicians to gain and hold power.
Definition: The tendency to assemble unrelated events of the past into stories.
Insight: Stories are misleading, but satisfying.
Insight: Stories create a false sense of certainty.
Example: Propaganda.
Example: The narrative of historical events.
Insight: When we question the narrative we become open to new possibilities and knowledge.
Principle: Challenge narratives.
Key Insights & Principles
Stories and Bias
We have a tendency toward finding patterns, even when they don't explain facts.
We simplify and summarise to avoid complexity, which often miss the details of truth and reality.
We want to make sense of the world, and stories create a false sense of certainty.
The narrative fallacy distorts our representation of the world.
We constantly fool ourselves by creating or re-creating history.
We have a tendency to want to find logical explanations, even when there is none.
Stories often remove the role of luck and randomness, and favour talent, stupidity and intention when explaining people's actions.
The narrative fallacy can be avoided by framing our explanations or stories as conjectures, and then running experiments.
The narrative fallacy is particularly strong with rare events.
We have a poorer understanding of the world than we like to think.
The problem with stories is that misinformation thrives and facts become dispensable, they are easily weaponised by authorities.
Stories can be effective in conveying the correct message.
Favour experimentation over stories, experiences over history, and clinical knowledge over theories.
Make predictions of the future, then review.
Be open minded, rather than sticking to one narrative.
